In the span of a few weeks, interest rates went from being "a long way from neutral" to "just below" the Fed's target range. Soon thereafter, the Fed's unwinding of its balance sheet went from being on autopilot to potentially ending this year.
Meanwhile, analysts have been predicting a decline in earnings for the first quarter (-2.7%) of 2019 and low single-digit growth in earnings for the second (0.7%) and third (2.2%) quarters of 2019. They also expect the first quarter of 2019 to deliver the first year-over-year decline in net profit margin since 2016. And yet the Dow has been on 9-week winning streak since Christmas Eve.
Sometimes it seems the doctor and the medicine he prescribes is more important than the actual state of the patient. Disclosures
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. This content was created as of the specific date indicated and reflects the author's views as of that date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.